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Clouds over the American Economy

Author: Janey

Aug. 13, 2024

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Clouds over the American Economy

The first lines of A Tale of Two Cities capture the mood of the day:

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It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity . . . 

Fast forward from London and Paris during the French Revolution to today, and nothing much has changed. A recent headline in the Wall Street Journal reads: &#;Mixed signals cloud economic forecast,&#; referring to whether we shall have the proverbial &#;soft landing&#; or the dreaded recession that has everyone looking over his or her shoulder. One response to the problem is to provide everyone with tips on how they should weather a recession that is not of their making: stay liquid, trim inessential spending, shorten vacations. But these countermeasures, of course, do nothing to promote or stanch a recession. The question remains: what explains these prospects?

One obvious place to look is short-term movements of the stock market, which turns everyone&#;s attention to the weak jobs report of August 2, followed by a three-day rout in the stock market; as of today, the market has recovered some but not all of those losses. The conventional wisdom is that the so-called Sahm rule, named for former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, points to a recession, &#;when the three-month moving average of the national jobless rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its prior twelve-month low.&#; There is a strong a priori sense that any ad hoc rule of this sort cannot be correct, given the welter of conditions that it necessarily ignores, and Sahm, to her credit, got it just right when three years after her initial publication, she blogged &#;I created a monster,&#; because the rule &#;is a historical pattern, not a rule of nature.&#;

There is also a deeper problem: what is the relationship between the odds of a recession and the upcoming election? Such a question splits into two branches. What will happen before election day, November 5? And what will happen when the new administration takes over in January? As to the first, we can expect that the battle will be over the question of short-term interest rates. Keep these rates high, and consumers can get nice rates on long-term bank deposits. But the other side of the coin is far more ominous. Individuals who have to refinance short-term home loans will be in something of a pickle. The housing market will see high (if somewhat declining) mortgage rates, now at around 6.31 percent for a thirty-year loan, which means that individuals with long-term favorable rates on existing properties are reluctant to sell if they know their next purchase will require a hefty increase in mortgage rates. These high rates also deter first-time buyers from entering the housing market unless they can, as seems to be more common as of late, come up with enough funds to eke out an all-cash offer. Lower those interest rates and the costs of homeownership goes down, as does the cost of credit for individuals who are interested in starting new businesses or expanding old ones. No one can predict with confidence the timing of any anticipated rate decrease, and that uncertainty adds costs to buyers, sellers, lenders, and borrowers alike, which in turn slows down the overall rates of transactions. Couple that with another Biden spending spree to forgive student loans, and the two could easily spell a move to a recession.

Yet the greater uncertainties lie not with interest rates but with the rate of taxation and regulation over the long run. These are critical because inflation requires the confluence of two sources, too much money chasing too few goods and services. Thus there is more than one way to wreck an economy, such that antigrowth policies can contribute to inflation by reducing the productive capacity of the nation.

I am not aware of any pro-growth policy that has ever been championed by either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Over the past years, we have seen overly aggressive antitrust enforcement under Lina Khan, chair of the Federal Trade Commission; massive moves by the Securities and Exchange Commission to impose onerous climate-change reporting onto private companies; sweeping efforts to drive out fossil fuels in favor of electric vehicles; attempts to weaken the protection afforded patents; and more. Donald Trump, for all his weaknesses, falls on the opposite side of that divide, for he would scrap, not support, the green policies of both Biden and Harris, among others. A lot rides on the outcome of this election, which many rate a tossup.

Think of how businesses and individuals should react to what they do know of the candidates&#; stances. Whatever the fine points, Harris&#;s policies are going to be hard left while Trump&#;s are going to be more market-friendly, given his general skepticism toward taxation and regulation, which is diluted only in part by his misguided love for tariffs&#;a love shared by both Biden and Harris as part of their pro-labor stance. Neither side seems aware of the damage that tariffs can cause to an economy. Business decisions may well be put on hold until the election is over, which itself could help spur some kind of a recession.

It is an open question whether Harris will continue to hold to the raft of left-wing positions that she took in the Senate. But if she wants to win Pennsylvania, she will have to back down, as she is now doing, from her earlier statements in favor of a ban on fracking. But that is more easily said than done: beneath her current campaign for &#;joy,&#; there lies a serious set of difficulties with left-wing progressives who would like to see a (surely unattainable) world that runs not on fossil fuels but on wind and solar energy. A tangible symbol of this idealistic vision is the catastrophic failure in late July of a wind turbine near Nantucket, its blades washed ashore as debris.

The difficulties run deeper. Harris will suffer mightily if she continues with the Biden administration&#;s policy of mandating the use of electric cars when the infrastructure is not there to support such a huge shift, a goal that has run ahead of the technology. That gap is so pronounced that even in blue New York, there is pressure is to push back or eliminate green-conversion mandates resulting from legislation which would require 70 percent of all electricity to be derived from renewable sources by . It is no secret that the Harris-Walz ticket will endorse or even increase government activity in this direction, along with pursuing a tax policy more aggressively redistributive than that of Biden himself.

Harris&#;s selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate makes it clear that she may tack to the center with her words, but continue to run hard left. The Wall Street Journal has explained just how Walz has embraced tax-and-spend policies that have already stifled economic growth in Minnesota and would do even more damage if implemented nationally. High taxes and extensive transfer payments are especially poisonous at the state level because they drive productive individuals to move away, just as they have done for several years as residents of California, New York, and New Jersey move to red states like Florida, South Carolina, and Texas. 

In looking for signs of growth, it is not wise to look at total rates of employment. Instead, it is important, as in Minnesota, to differentiate between public and private employment. Some jobs may be heavily taxpayer-subsidized, in contrast to those in heavily taxed industries like construction and finance. Jobs in the former industries increase take-home pay for the fortunate workers in the short run, but the effect is to reduce productivity in the private sector&#;which means a failed strategy in the long run. Signs of trouble are apparent. Personal income growth is down to a standstill in the past four years as inflation has outpaced wage growth, and the boom in the stock market is something that favors individuals with wealth to invest. Meanwhile, the labor market in the private sector tends to favor high-income workers who are less hit by labor regulations that raise minimum wages and foster unionization.

In mere months, it could become clear whether the economy and the country are heading toward the &#;the best of times&#; or &#;the worst of times.&#;

Understanding the Importance of Branding for Businesses

Why branding is important: Key takeaways

  • Branding refers to creating a unique identity for your business or offerings through your marketing messages, packaging, or customer experiences.
  • Branding is important for businesses because a strong brand creates a memorable impression.
  • Building relationships and fostering connections with your audience, who can eventually turn into loyal customers, are also some of the branding benefits for businesses.

Whether you are a multi-franchise corporation or a humble shop on the street corner, you cannot deny the benefits of branding for your business. A strong brand gives you a distinctive character and elicits positive feelings from your audience, thus encouraging them to transact with you.

If you want to understand the importance of branding for your business and how you can use this strategy, keep reading.

What is a brand?

What is a brand?

A brand is a business or a product that consumers perceive to have a unique identity.

Your brand is not just your logo, business name, or website colors. It&#;s multiple components that work together.

You can create your brand through strategic design, messaging, and packaging. Together, these elements will set your product or business apart from your competitors.

Simply put, your brand is what you offer, why you&#;re providing it, and what makes it different or better from competitors. It communicates to your target audience what they can anticipate from your products and services.

What is branding?

Branding refers to creating the unique brand identity of a product or business through messages, design, packaging, and events.

This strategy helps your target audience easily recognize your business or offerings among your competitors.

Take M&Ms, for example. One of the most popular candies, M&M&#;s is easily recognizable by its characters.

Branding vs. marketing: What are their differences?

While both branding and marketing are important to grow your business, they are two different strategies.

Branding creates your company&#;s or product&#;s identity and reputation. Meanwhile, marketing includes strategies and campaigns that promote your brand to your target audience.

The importance of branding

Branding is an important strategy for businesses because it creates a notable identity that sets them apart from their competitors. Branding also provides a consistent experience for your prospects, fostering brand recognition and familiarity.

Your brand is the promise you make to your customers. Who you are, who you want to be, and who people perceive you to be are the reasons branding is important.

10 benefits of branding

Here are the top 10 reasons why branding is important for your business&#;s success.

1. Differentiation

Creating a recognizable and unique brand identity helps your business stand out from competitors. It enables customers to recognize and remember your products and services from others with similar offerings.

Work on your brand positioning to highlight your uniqueness, which draws customers.

2. Recognition

Providing a consistent brand experience makes it easier to build brand recognition or familiarity.

When your customers are familiar with your brand, they are more likely to choose your products and services over others. Something as simple as choosing your signature brand colors can boost brand recognition by 80% among your audience.

3. Trust and credibility

If your brand resonates with your target audience, it will inspire trust and confidence in them. Another important aspect of branding in marketing is that a well-established brand can communicate its values, quality, and reliability, making advertising and promoting your products easier.

4. Customer loyalty

Consistent branding fosters customer loyalty and encourages return visits and future purchases.

When customers have positive experiences with your brand, they are more likely to become loyal advocates and recommend your brand to others online or through word of mouth, allowing you to build a larger customer base over time.

5. Brand equity

Strong branding brings in more money. When you enhance your brand&#;s value and trust with your audience, it can lead to increased customer demand, more sales and lower price sensitivity.

In fact, 43% of consumers spend their money on brands they&#;re loyal to.

6. Emotional connection

Effective branding taps into emotions and creates a connection with your customers. When people feel emotionally connected to a brand, they develop a sense of loyalty and affinity. Your brand can even present engaged employees who are proud to work at your company.

7. Market positioning

Your brand helps to position your business in the market and target specific customers. Your marketing positioning, including your unique value proposition, must be translated into your visual branding, content, product and marketing efforts.

8. Consistency

From your marketing campaigns and social media content to your product packaging and communication style, branding ensures consistency across all platforms and channels. A consistent brand voice and tone create a cohesive brand experience, reinforcing your brand&#;s values and personality.

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9. Brand advocacy

When your brand cultivates a community of loyal customers, they become brand advocates. This means they actively promote and defend your brand, contribute to positive word-of-mouth marketing, and expand your customer base.

10. Business growth

Ultimately, branding plays a pivotal role in driving business revenue. With increased brand visibility, you attract new customers and earn their trust, which leads to increased sales.

In fact, a consistent presentation of your brand can help you increase your revenue by 23%. Additionally, the more your business grows, the more potential applicants want to work for your brand.

Branding FAQs

Let&#;s answer some of your questions about branding:

Keep reading for the answers!

1. What are the different types of branding in business?

There are different types of branding in business worth noting:

  • Personal branding &#; a brand associated with a person
  • Product branding &#; the most common type that&#;s based on a product
  • Service branding &#; branding that&#;s focused on the service a person or company provides
  • Retail branding &#;  a type of branding connected to stores and retailers selling specific products
  • Cultural and geographic branding &#; branding that&#;s impacted by your target audience&#;s local conventions
  • Corporate branding &#; branding that&#;s focused on the look and success of a business
  • Online branding &#; all communication and branding that happens online or digitally
  • Offline branding &#; all offline communication and branding, such as packaging
  • Co-branding &#; two or more brands partnering together for the same product or service
  • Ingredient branding &#; the achievement of one component of a product or business

2. What are some examples of good branding?

Now that we know what makes a good brand, let&#;s dive into five examples of companies that do it well and why branding is important to their success.

1. Microsoft

Type of branding: Corporate

One of the most recognizable examples comes from the world&#;s leading technology brand. Microsoft aims to offer software and simplified solutions to its customers. Their four-block icon represents the different focus areas in the Microsoft ecosystem. The window-like design is meant to evoke the company&#;s flagship software product, Windows. Four simple boxes of color project the company&#;s mission, product suite and corporate identity.

 

2. Starbucks

Type of branding: Product

The green and white logo on a white coffee cup is all you need to recognize the major coffee brand. When you think of grabbing a quick cup of coffee, your mind automatically thinks of Starbucks. Their quality coffee and ordering system that is consistent across all branches are elements that add to its strong product branding.

3. Tony Robbins

Type of branding: Personal

Tony Robbins became a brand name after many years as a reputable life and business strategist. He helps others create the life of their dreams through coaching programs, seminars and books. People recognize him by the way he connects with his audience and displays his charismatic personality with an energetic drive to succeed. His team markets his products and services by using professional images across all online platforms.

 

4. Eiffel Tower

Type of branding: Geographic

Tourist attractions and areas of natural beauty set cities, regions and even countries apart from other demographics. The Eiffel Tower is instantly recognizable as a French national icon, and many businesses in the region use this image to identify their location. Another example of French geographic branding is the vineyards in the region of Champagne that leverage their location to sell premium wines.

5. Airbnb

Type of branding: Service

Airbnb emerged as a successful company in a short period. Their mission is to provide unique travel experiences and convenient customer service and support. The heart-shaped logo in soft colors connects with customers on an emotional level by conveying the idea of community and compassion. Airbnb shares content that creates amazing visions with an inspirational and creative tone of voice.

3. What are some branding best practices for SMBs?

Here are some branding tips for small and medium-sized businesses:

1. Define your brand&#;s purpose and identity

Your brand purpose is your business&#;s or product&#;s why.

Why does your business exist? Why did you develop your product or service? What pain point is your product trying to solve?

These are some of the questions that can help you define your brand&#;s purpose.

Meanwhile, your brand identity shows the personality of your company. Aside from your logo and visual identity, your brand identity also reflects your company values and your tone of voice when communicating with your audience.

2. Determine your target audience

Your target audience is your intended customers or prospects. They will likely benefit from your product or services.

When defining your target audience, be specific and consider your audience&#;s:

  • Demographics (such as location, age, and income)
  • Firmographics (such as industry, location, and size)
  • Psychographics (such as lifestyle, hobbies, and values)

3. Craft your brand strategy

Your brand strategy is your long-term plan that outlines how you&#;ll build rapport with your target market and foster loyalty as your brand grows and evolves.

When creating your brand strategy, think of it as a roadmap that your team can use as a reference when communicating with your audience and representing your business. It must clearly define your brand purpose.

4. Create a brand style guide

A brand style guide details the proper use of your logo, brand&#;s visual elements, and tone or voice when communicating with your audience.

Your brand style guide instills consistency among your team members when communicating with your audience, regardless of platform. When creating your brand style guide, ensure you have guidelines for your visual elements, such as fonts and colors.

Include details about your brand voice and tone, too. Does your brand communicate casually with your audience like a friend? Or should you sound like a colleague who uses professional language?

You can also list down the dos and don&#;ts when using your logo. Specify words that you want your business to use and terms you must never use.

Connect with your customers through branding

Branding is a critical investment if you&#;re looking to grow your business, increase site traffic, and boost your online visibility and brand awareness. Our team at WebFX will review your strategic objectives and create a plan that aligns perfectly with your branding goals.

Ready to have a stand-out brand? Contact us online or call us at 888-601- to speak with one of our strategists!

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